A Decisive Choice to Advantage Economic Transition: 2020: Trends of and Challenges for China' Economic Transition and Upgrading

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Table of Contents
Overview Historical Choice of China in Transition 
Ⅰ.The period up to 2020: Last "window of opportunity" for economic transition 
Ⅱ.2020: General trend of economic transition and upgrading 
Ⅲ.2020: Forming a service—oriented economic structure 
Ⅳ Adapting to and leading the new normal with the service sector as the leading force 
Ⅴ.The 13th Five—Year Plan: tough fight of reform centering on transition innovation 
Chapter Ⅰ From Made in China to Created in China 
Section Ⅰ Grasping the general trend of industrial transformation and upgrading 
Ⅰ.General trend of energy Internet revolution 
Ⅱ.General trend of manufacturing digital revolution 
Ⅲ.General trend of manufacturing service revolution 
Section Ⅱ Coping with challenges of the times in industrial transformation and upgrading 
Ⅰ.Reshaping the new competitive advantages of manufacturing 
Ⅱ.Promoting green transformation 
Ⅲ.Implementing the innovation—driven strategy 
Ⅳ.Renovating and improving traditional industries 
Section Ⅲ Realizing deep integration of industry and services 
Ⅰ.Substantially improve the producer service level 
Ⅱ.Realizing manufacturing informationization and service orientation 
Ⅲ.Promoting the global arrangement of manufacturing 
Ⅳ.The 13th Five—Year Plan: complete upgrading from Industrial Revolution 2.0 to 3.0 
Ⅴ.The 13th Five—Year Plan: laying an important foundation for Industrial Revolution 4.0 
Section Ⅳ Important tasks of promoting the industrial transformation and upgrading 
Ⅰ.Transforming the traditional industries with big data, cloud computing, Internet of things and mobile Internet technology 
Ⅱ.Improving the strategic emerging industries with integration and development of new energy and Internet as focus 
Ⅲ.Promoting development of smart manufacturing based on domestic market demands 
Ⅳ.Supporting advanced manufacturing industry to "go global" 
Ⅴ.Promoting innovation—driven upgrading of industrial parks 
Ⅵ.Promoting reform of enterprise organization 
Chapter Ⅱ From scale urbanization to population urbanization 
Section Ⅰ 2020: To set up new pattern of population urbanization 
Ⅰ.Urbanization is still the biggest dividend of China's development 
Ⅱ.From population urbanization to people—centered urbanization 
Ⅲ.A major task under the 13th Five—Year Plan: to form a new pattern of population urbanization 
Second Ⅱ Promote equalization of public resource allocation among cities of difterent sizes 
Ⅰ.Promoting coordinated development of cities of different sizes through equalization of public resource allocation 
Ⅱ.Promoting population urbanization by equalizing allocation of public resources 
Section Ⅲ From population urbanization to urban and rural integration 
Ⅰ.Propelling urban—rural integration through population urbanization 
Ⅱ."Equal marketing and same price based on same ownership or use right" for urban and ruralland for construction 
Ⅲ.Integration of urban and rural social security systems 
Ⅳ.Unified policy on "second child" in urban and rural areas 
Section Ⅳ Promoting coordinated development of population urbanization and smart cities 
Ⅰ.Developing smart cities to improve comprehensive bearing capacity of urban areas 
Ⅱ.Promoting reasonable layout of cities of different sizes through construction of smart cities 
Ⅲ.Promoting modernization of urban administration through construction of smart cities 
Chapter Ⅲ From material conssumption to service consumption 
Section Ⅰ Time features of the upgrading of consumption structure 
Ⅰ.Upgrading from survival—oriented consumption to development—oriented consumption 
Ⅱ.Upgrading from material consumption to service consumption 
Ⅲ.Upgrading from traditional consumption to new—type consumption 
Section Ⅱ 2020: To be a country with great consumption power 
Ⅰ.Upgrading of consumption structure leads to huge consumption potential 
Ⅱ.Consumption structure upgrading to become major driving force for economic transformation and upgrading 
Ⅲ.13th Five—Year Plan: prospect of growth driven by consumption 
Section Ⅲ 13th Five—Year Plan: To Promote Consumption—driven Economic Transformation 
Ⅰ.Innovation of consumption suppiy 
Ⅱ.Accelerating investment transformation 
Ⅲ.Improving consumption environment 
Chapter Ⅳ From industry—dominant toward service industry—dominant economy 
Section Ⅰ Developing from a big industrial country to a big service industry country 
Ⅰ.Industrial transformation and upgrading vs.Transition to a big service industry country 
Ⅱ.Urbanization transformation and upgrading, and the road to a big service industry country 
Ⅲ.Consumption structure upgrading, and the road to a big service industry country 
Section Ⅱ Establishing a service industry—dominant economic structure by 2020 
Ⅰ.Enabling service industry to account for above 55% in GDP 
Ⅱ.Service industry maintains a two—digit growth 
Ⅲ.Service industry's scale tends to re—double 
Ⅳ.Continuous optimization of service industry's structure 
Section Ⅲ Leading the economic new normal with service industry as the dominant force 
Ⅰ.To form a new normal of 7% growth 
Ⅱ.Forming the new normal for continuous expansron of job opportunities 
Ⅲ.Forming the new normal of mass entrepreneurship and innovation 
Ⅳ.Creating a new normal for gradual optimization of interest structure 
Ⅴ.Forming new normal for green growth and green transformation 
Chapter Ⅴ Emancipate the service industry market 
Chapter Ⅵ Cracking the nut of structural reform 
Chapter Ⅶ Boosting the progress of building a service trade power 
Chapter Ⅷ Deepening governmental reform with the focus on streamlining administration and instituting decentralization
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Sample pages of A Decisive Choice to Advantage Economic Transition: 2020: Trends of and Challenges for China' Economic Transition and Upgrading (ISBN:9787508532066)

Sample pages of A Decisive Choice to Advantage Economic Transition: 2020: Trends of and Challenges for China' Economic Transition and Upgrading (ISBN:9787508532066)

Sample pages of A Decisive Choice to Advantage Economic Transition: 2020: Trends of and Challenges for China' Economic Transition and Upgrading (ISBN:9787508532066)
III. Forming the new normal of mass entrepreneurship and innovati on
The service industry’s dominant position will not only produce the major force for a new-round innovation and startup development but also carve out enormous markets for innovation and startup development and prepare important conditions for the new innovation-driving layout.
1. Driving technical upgrading with service upgrading
China has come to the middle and late stage of industrialization. Technical upgrading and service demand make directly combination. Enterprise competitiveness and service quality are directly interlinked. Enterprise competitiveness mainly depends on whether the service is professional and elaborate.
2. Carving out startup space in service industry
As service industry has low requirement to capital scale, the startup threshold and difficulty is lower than those of manufacturing. In the past years, the mushrooming multinationals were mainly in the service industry, such as,, facebook. com and other giants of international service industry. For example, in 2013, the total revenue of Zhongguancun’s modern service industry reached 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 66.7% of the total revenue of Zhongguancun-based enterprises, 5 percentage points higher than that in 2011. As for industrial development law, service industry has diverse sectors, high individualization and differentiation and can offer wide space for startups. Especially, the robust development of big data and Internet in China brings the mode rebirth opportunities for traditional industries. Many traditional industries can realize large-scale elimination of intermediate services through online customized orders and initiate a new-round startup development fever.


In the face of the current economic downturn, China’s economic growth prospects and economic transition trends have attracted increasing attention. In general, the 13th Five-Year Plan Period (2016-2020) is the last “window of opportunity” for China’s economic transition and upgrading. When the mid-term (2020) is well planned and well tapped, China will lay a solid foundation for the following 10-20 years of fair and sustainable growth. If the important historical opportunity of the mid-term (2020) is missed, China will lose the initiative of economic transition and reform and face the consequent systemic economic risks. We should have objective and sober estimation of such possibilities.
Based on these considerations, this book on the, theme of “a decisive choice to advance economic transition”, attempts to objectively analyze the trends of and challenges for China’s economic transition and upgrading in the six years from 2015 to 2020, and offers suggestions for practical action. The book consists of an overview and eight chapters. The “overview” sets forth the general thinking on the economic transition and reform for the six years from 2015 to 2020. Chapter I-III study and examine the three historical trends that China faces in the economic transition and upgrading: first, the general trend of industrial transition and upgrading from “Made in China” to “Smart Manufacturing in China”; second, the general trend of urbanization transition and upgrading from scale-oriented urbanization to urbanization of population; third, the general trend of consumption structure upgrading from material consumption to service consumption. To adapt to the three general trends, Chapter IV puts forward the basic goals of the 2020 economic transition and upgrading. We believe the way for China’s economic transition is to accelerate the transition from an industrial power to a service industry power and complete a service industry dominated economic structure by 2020. To realize this strategic goal, the key is to deepen reform. Therefore Chapter V to VIII analyze the four important tasks of comprehensively deepening economic reform in the period 2015-2020: first, accelerating the opening up of the service market and forming an open environment for the service market as soon as possible; second, breaking up the fixed vested interest structure and cracking the “hard nut” of structural reform, and making new breakthroughs in fiscal, taxation, financial and educational reform; third, grasping new opportunities in multi-lateral and bilateral free trade to promote the process of enrichment of the country through service trade and exploiting new advantages in international competition; fourth, deepening governmental reform by streamlining administration and delegating power to lower levels to enable the administrative reform to effectively promote the economic transition and upgrading.
Releasing an annual report on China reform is an important task of the China Institute for Reform and Development (CIRD) to build “China Reform Think Tank”. We expect this book will be well received by readers, trigger further thinking among all circles about China’s economic transition and upgrading and have a positive influence on the study and formulation of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
This report is a collective creation of the research team of CIRD with reliance on domestic and overseas documents. The book is mainly compiled and edited by Chi Fulin, Fang Shuanxi, Xia Feng, He Dongni, Kuang Xianming, Liu Feng and Zhang Fei and others., Miao Shubin, Song Min, Gan Lu, Chen Suohua, Fang Yunyun, Guo Wenqin, Song Xue, Yang Tianying, Li Xuka, Ren Xiping, Yu Xiujuan and others also participated in material collection and editing of the book. Many thanks to China Intercontinental Press for its strong support for this publication.
Chi Fulin, February 1, 2015

A Decisive Choice to Advantage Economic Transition: 2020: Trends of and Challenges for China' Economic Transition and Upgrading